Mark Lindeman teaches political studies at Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson, New York. You can contact him via e-mail at [his last name]@bard.edu.
Short Lindeman: The fear that U.S. elections can be stolen strikes me as well founded; the conviction that the 2004 U.S. presidential election clearly was stolen, by means of vote count corruption, bewilders me.
"Bias and swing in the 2004 NEP exit polls: do the exit polls indicate fraud?" (HTML)
"Exit Polls, Vote Fraud, and 'ESI's Hypothesis': A Response to Kathy Dopp's 'Mathematical Proof'" (PDF)
"Response to Dopp’s Paper of December 1, 2005" (PDF)
"Surprise and Confusion: Do Pre-Election Polls and Exit Polls Buttress 2004 Fraud Claims?" (PDF)
"Pre-Election State Polls and Exit Polls" (summary of part of "Surprise and Confusion" in HTML format)
"Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Poll" (PDF)
"Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate" (PDF)
A TruthIsAll FAQ: Table of Contents; Introduction; print version
"Uncounted: A Critical Review" (PDF)
"Landslide Contrived: A Critique of 'Landslide Denied'" (PDF)
"Smudge: A Critique of 'Fingerprints of Election Theft'" (PDF)
"Election Verification Audits with Residual-Based Error Bounds" (PDF)
"Fraud in the 2002 Alabama Gubernatorial Election? A Research Note" (PDF)
Exit poll Within-Precinct Error by "True" Bush vote proportion (courtesy of Warren Mitofsky)
Exit poll WPE Index (Liddle index) by "True" Bush vote proportion (courtesy of Warren Mitofsky)
Exit poll recorded refusal rate by "True" Bush vote proportion (courtesy of Warren Mitofsky)
Presidential incumbent vote margin by latest Gallup Poll approval rating, 1956-2004 . Inspired by James E. Campbell, PSQ Summer 2005. Are incumbents with under 50% approval doomed to lose? It wouldn't appear so (the breakeven is around 45%, based on the regression line). (This graph replaces an older one with an even lower breakeven, which was heavily influenced by the 1948 election.)
Democratic presidential vote margin by Voting-Eligible Population turnout, 1948-2004 (turnout statistics courtesy of Michael P. McDonald, United States Election Project). Do Democratic presidential candidates do better when turnout is high? Looks pretty flat (the curved lines are 95% confidence intervals for the mean regression line).
Kerry vote share by Connally and Issue 1 shares, Warren County vs. rest of Ohio. Did Bush get a surprising number of votes from Connally-voting Issue 1 opponents? Maybe, but not especially so.
Family politics: our daughter Harriet demonstrates the power of agenda control (pay no attention to the girl behind the bulletin board!). Photo courtesy of Margaret Lindeman.
